DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/25 11:09
Grains Mixed at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed at midday, soybeans are 2 to 4 cents higher, and
wheat is flat to 3 cents higher.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 335. The dollar index is
40 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude
down $0.75. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with
gold down 25.00.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade looking to collect itself
after the headline selling to start the week. Ethanol margins remain tight with
ethanol futures holding the low end of the range, while the energy complex sees
further pressure. Corn basis remains steady, with little change in recent days
but more open weather should help movement along with March basis contracts
coming due this week. On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band
and the fresh lows at $3.70 marked yesterday, with resistance at the lower
Bollinger band at $3.74, which we tested overnight.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade working back off
the lows from yesterday. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, and oil 20 to 30 points
lower. South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest
moving forward with little change on the horizon with some rain delays in
Brazil keeping harvest off the average pace. The Brazilian real remains very
cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term with new lows
scored this week, but some strength this a.m. New-crop soybeans will need to
gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S.
with little progress so far this spring. The March soybean chart support is the
lower Bollinger Band at $8.69, with resistance the 20-day at $8.85.
Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher with trade turning back positive
midday after early weakness. Weather threats for the Plains remain limited with
mostly warmer short term weather. Kansas City is at an 84-cent discount to
Chicago, widening a nickel from the a.m. while Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent
discount as well, narrowing sharply from last week's action. Partial condition
reports yesterday showed no major issues so far for the Plains states. World
export business has been quieter in recent days. The March Kansas City chart
support is $4.50 with resistance the lower Bollinger Band at $4.56.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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